2023 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Marcus Garvey

Macquarie Bank Ltd.

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300
 

Range

$1,445 - $1,834

Average

$1,594

We expect a further 25bps of tightening in 1Q23 and then the Fed to hold rates firm, even as inflation falls with the US economy entering recession. This period of rising real interest rates (with the absence of a Fed “put”) should see gold prices fall alongside risk assets and keep the US dollar relatively firm, even as the dollar index is likely to have made its cycle high in 2022. We expect this period to mark the lows for gold, before it begins to rally sustainably once the market can start to price the next easing cycle.

Top three drivers for the gold price in 2023: The stickiness of developed market inflation, central banks’ policy response to this, and the knock-on impacts on the US dollar.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$10 $14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42
 

Range

$16 - $24.50

Average

$18.63

The same real rates headwinds for gold apply to silver, while our forecast for a global developed market recession in 2023 also implies a period of lacklustre industrial demand growth. Nevertheless, increased electric vehicle penetration and the build-out of solar generating capacity underpin a strong medium-term demand outlook, and physical balances maintain the potential to get very tight during periods of firm investment demand.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$850 - $1,150

Average

$988

The pre-investment balance is expected to register a small surplus in 2023, as catch-up refining of work-in-process inventories is offset by improved auto production, demand substitution and higher heavy-duty diesel loadings. The post investment balance could therefore swing into deficit, but our expectation for the Fed to stay the course and bring inflation back to target presents a clear headwind to this. Rather, additional support may come from Chinese apparent demand continuing to run above estimates of real consumption. Hydrogen remains the great hope for demand growth, but continues to impact sentiment more than near-term fundamentals, at this stage.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 $2,100 $2,300 $2,500 $2,700 $2,900
 

Range

$1,600 - $2,200

Average

$2,000

We expect global automotive sales to rise counter-cyclically in 2023, as reduced supply chain disruptions enable sequential growth, supporting PGM demand. Even with incremental substitution away from palladium, and improved refined production from South Africa and North America, we expect the market to remain in deficit during 2023, with considerable uncertainty around Russian sales volumes. However, the structural challenges of rising EV penetration, scrap supply growth and further primary supply expansions all loom large.