2023 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Robin Bhar

Robin Bhar Metals Consulting

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Current price

$1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300
 

Range

$1,600 - $2,000

Average

$1,890

Amid a moderation in inflation, the Fed has room to slow the pace of rate hikes, which should favour gold. In general, 2023 is shaping up to be a gold-friendly outlook, driven by recession risks and peak US dollar and yields. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side. Huge government deficits and huge increases in public and private debt should support the gold price, while any escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven demand for gold.

Top three drivers for the gold price in 2023: US monetary policy, US dollar, geopolitics

— Current price

$10 $14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42
 

Range

$17 - $26

Average

$23

Silver follows gold, while rebounding global growth/industrial activity is likely to boost jewellery demand, and the metal has more industrial applications and is critical to green technologies (solar photovoltaic (PV), electric vehicles (EVs), 5G networks, etc.). The strength of global silver industrial demand is expected to maintain the market in a deficit and draw down tight silver inventories further. Investor interest will be boosted in the face of loosening US monetary policy and silver’s important role in the energy transition.

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$900 - $1,200

Average

$1,038

Amid a market moving from surplus into deficit, the price is likely to be underpinned. Strong imports into China and gains from substitution of palladium will also be supportive factors. Speculative interest is likely to be rekindled on rebounding autocatalyst demand over the course of the year, with interest switching out of the other precious metals into platinum, on perceived platinum outperformance.

— Current price

$900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 $2,100 $2,300 $2,500 $2,700 $2,900
 

Range

$1,700 - $2,300

Average

$1,775

An ongoing recovery in vehicle sales and tightening emission standards will continue to boost palladium offtake while supply remains in a shortfall, keeping the metal in deficit in 2023. However, the rate of substitution and continued thrifting of palladium is likely to hamper demand.