Director of Research, BullionVault
I do not think 2018 was actually that bad for gold, when you consider what it was up against. Interest rates have been rising, not only in the US, but also across the world central banks have now finally all started to follow that trend. And we have also had very strong stock markets globally. You have the US stock market hitting all-time record highs, global stock markets, until we had the emerging markets selloff, also doing well. So, gold, as a competitor investment. Gold is a form of insurance for investor portfolios, really it actually held pretty well. For us at Bullion Vault, it has been a year where customers have been taking profit on a price rise and buying more on a dip. That has changed over the last month or so with the selloff in western stock markets, developer stock markets. Now we have actually seen people buying on a rising price, which is a straw in the wind at this stage perhaps.
Well, I think if you look particularly at the LBMA conference’s delegate forecast from last year, people were looking for an 8% rise from where we were back in Barcelona in 2017. Gold has not delivered on that. Against the headwinds that it has faced – rising interest rates and a strong stock market – I think perhaps the enthusiasm for gold last year was mistaken.
People tend to predict what they have just seen. And often at the conference, we are in a relatively strong period for gold prices, so often people extrapolate that forwards and say, ‘Gold is going to continue doing what it is doing right now.’ You know, that may well hold into 2019, if the stock-market stumble continues and investors start looking for insurance and for an alternative to holding equity risk, given that stock markets are at all-time record highs.
Explore more videos
Responsible Sourcing & Industrial Miners in ASM
Alan Martin (Head of Responsible Sourcing, LBMA) and Gregory Mthembu-Salter (Director, Phuzumoya Consulting) discussed how industrial miners could help responsible sourcing in the Artisanal and Small-scale Mining (ASM) sector.
The Future of Responsible Sourcing, Sustainability and ESG
The webinar features a discussion on the OECD’s three flagship initiatives to address problems in Artisanal and Small-scale Mining and the FATF report on Environmental Crime and Money Laundering – as well as many other topics relating to ESG.
LBMA/LPPM Virtual Precious Metals Conference Wrap Up
In today’s webinar, James Steel (Chief Precious Metals Analyst, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc) and Suki Cooper (Precious Metals Analyst, Standard Chartered) discussed their personal highlights of the LBMA/LPPM Virtual Precious Metals Conference 2021.