LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey

This year’s Forecast Survey has revealed that analysts are cautiously optimistic about gold and silver prices in 2023, forecasting them on average to be 3.3% and 8.8% higher respectively by the end of this calendar year compared to average prices in 2022.

Palladium sees the most negative sentiment for price, with analysts expecting a fall of 14.3% compared to 2022 prices. But analysts have shown a bullish view to the performance of platinum, with an increase of 12.5% forecast against 2022 prices.

The deadline for analysts in this year’s survey was 18 January 2023, giving them the benefit of observing two weeks of trading before confirming their contributions. Comparing analysts’ forecasts against actual prices in the first half of January 2023, we can see a slightly more bullish outcome for precious metals prices so far in 2023.

Analysts are forecasting a 1.1% fall for gold and a 0.9% fall for silver, with platinum seeing a negligible increase by 0.6% and palladium with a 2.3% increase.

As ever, analysts were also asked to identify their top three drivers for the price of gold in 2023. Some 43% of analysts cited the US dollar and the Fed’s monetary policy as the top driver, incorporating trust in the dollar, the currency’s strength, and the Fed specifically.

The second-most important in the list of drivers was regarded to be inflation, while geopolitical factors took third spot – a factor not deemed significant in last year’s survey.

GOLD FORECAST WINNER: Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP)

“One word describes gold’s price action in 2022, especially for traditional gold bulls: frustration. Escalating global inflation (to multi-decade highs in some regions), a war on Europe’s doorstop and accelerating deglobalisation were three new and major gold-specific developments that unfolded. Gold responded in Q1 when Russia officially invaded Ukraine, trading up to a $2070 (a 15% premium to the average gold price of $1800.09 it registered for FY 2022). That price spike was short-lived, marking a double top and gave way to very defensive price action in Q2-Q4’22 on one of the most aggressive Fed hiking cycles in 50+ years in response to soaring US inflation. The fear of inflation was trumped by fear of the Fed, and gold’s geopolitical premium was unwound. Still, strong physical demand, renewed central bank purchases and unprecedented retail coin/bar demand created a robust (and respected!) foundation in the low $1600s in 2022.

“Our thinking for gold’s forecast ($1800/oz average) in 2022 was simple: Golds inflation peak was not fairly priced at a time where plenty of push/pull factors were expected to offset each other. We did upgrade our 2022 forecast following Russia’s invasion to $2000/oz, but our upgraded forecast was too bullish, wrong and/or is arguably early for three reasons: 1) the geopolitical fear premium was unwound much faster and steeper than expected in 2022, 2) rising recession fears did not ignite gold-specific inflows from institutional investors, 3) and turbulence in financial markets and the implosion of the 60/40 portfolio drove investors into the safety of the US dollar and cash (over gold), more than we expected.

“However, and more importantly, all three drivers are still very relevant for 2023 and play into our constructive view; the ongoing war is driving ongoing dollarisation with renewed and persistent central bank purchases expected in 2023; recession risks will ensure both peak US dollar and peak real US yields, and as inflation falls it won’t fall to target leading to uneven recoveries; and an underinvested investor community will be sensitive to the US dollar-interplay between the Feds pause and (dis)inflation in 2023 with room to increase exposure. Still, price action offers plenty of clues and gold turned the corner in November 2022 when the Fed ended its 75-bp hiking regime, trading offensively and internalising structurally bullish drivers – that is a clear underpinning for an upward trajectory from here on out.”

SILVER FORECAST WINNER: Grant Sporre (Bloomberg Intelligence)

“2023 could prove to be an interesting year for precious metals, caught between powerful headwinds and tailwinds. By year end, I expect the downward pull to be just that little bit stronger than any upward momentum, such that prices end the year lower, with average prices for gold and palladium lower than in 2022. The market’s expectation of a Fed pivot is already baked in so that when it happens, we may see profit-taking across the complex. Specific supply-demand dynamics could see silver and platinum outperform.

“My 2022 average silver price forecast proved to be right, but for the wrong reasons. The metal was far more volatile than I had anticipated. I certainly did not factor in a full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February, and the subsequent metal price rally above $26 an ounce. Nor did I anticipate the extent of the sell-off to below $18 an ounce as interest rate hike expectations soared along with inflation. In contrast to my expectations, the November Bitcoin crash on the back of FTX’s woes boosted silver’s appeal once more taking the metal back up to $24 an ounce. While crypto currencies may recover, silver’s new-found appeal could carry through well into 2023.”

PALLADIUM FORECAST WINNER: James Steel (HSBC Securities USA)

“The great event of the palladium market in 2022 was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the uncertainty posed to supply from the world’s largest producer. This uncertainty, combined with inelastic auto demand, drove prices to a record US$, 440/oz. Material from Russia’s Nornickel however continued to reach consumer markets as the company adroitly managed transport and other logistical challenges associated with the Ukraine conflict. Since then palladium has lost ground in volatile trading. Price weakness reflected palladium’s heavy reliance on the auto sector, where demand was curbed by lower-than anticipated vehicle production and accelerating substitution with lower priced platinum.

“Looking to 2023, further recovery in auto production should boost demand. This is despite alternate vehicle growth and substitution with platinum. Limited scope for production gains make it likely that the market will still labour under a deficit, although a reduced one, compared to 2022. Low levels of available stocks and the ongoing threat of supply disruptions also have the potential to buoy prices in 2023.”