Last month, LBMA published its 2022 Precious Metals Forecast Survey: 34 analysts from 18 different cities representing all corners of the globe participated in the survey. Overall, analysts were neutral about the gold price in 2022, forecasting that prices are likely to be broadly flat in 2022 when compared against 2021 actual average prices.
Palladium is unloved this year, with analysts forecasting prices against 2021 average prices to fall -18%, with more modest falls expected for silver (-6.4%) and platinum (-2.5%). The deadline for analysts in this year’s survey was 14 January 2022, so they had the benefit of two weeks of trading before submitting their contributions. If we compare analysts’ forecasts against actual prices in the first half of January 2022 (see Table 2 on page 13), we see a more bullish outcome for precious metals prices in 2022.
Flat or negative prices forecast against 2021 prices
The one exception is gold, where analysts forecasted a -0.4% fall in the price. However, they are more bullish about the prospects of the other three metals. In the year of the Queen’s platinum jubilee celebrations, analysts are most bullish about platinum prices, forecasting a +10% increase.
More modest rises are forecast for silver and palladium, with increases of +3.6% and +3.8% respectively.
But analysts are more bullish against H1 January 2022 prices
We also asked analysts in this year’s survey to identify their top three drivers for the gold price in 2022. A third of the total votes revolved around the Fed’s monetary policy, with projected interest rate rises cited as a negative for the gold price.
Concerns about inflation accounted for around a quarter of the votes, with equity market performance regarded as the third key driver. Surprisingly, COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions were not particularly regarded as key influences for the gold price in 2022.
Au Average: $1,801.9 Range: $780
Highest High: $2,280 Lowest Low: $1,500
Gold is forecast to trade in a range of around $780 this year, compared to $1,192 in 2021. Analysts are forecasting the gold price to be broadly flat, compared to the actual average price in 2021 (+0.2%) as well as in relation to the actual average price in the first half of January 2022 (-0.4%).
For the second year running, Thorsten Polleit is the most bullish analyst with his average of $1,965. Bernard Dahdah is the most bearish with his forecast of $1,630.
Ag Average: $23.54 Range: $20.2
Highest High: $35.2 Lowest Low: $15
Analysts are forecasting silver’s trading range to be around $20.20, approximately half what they had forecast in last year’s survey ($38). Overall, they are forecasting the silver price to average $23.54 in 2022, representing a -6.4% fall compared to the actual average price in 2021 but +3.6% higher than the actual average price in the first half of January 2022.
Andy Habluetzel is the most bullish for silver in this year’s survey with his average forecast of $27 and Yufei Liu is the most bearish with her forecast of $20.11.
Pt Average: $1,063.4 Range: $619
Highest High: $1,390 Lowest Low: $771
Analysts are predicting the average platinum price in 2022 to be $1,063.4, -2.5% lower than its average 2021 price, but +10% compared to its actual average price in the first half of January 2022. Prices are forecast to trade in a range of around $619 compared to $1,053 in last year’s survey.
James Steel is the most bullish analyst with his average forecast of $1,210 and Frank Schallenberger is the most bearish with a forecast of $886.
Pd Average: $1,967.6 Range: $1,487
Highest High: $2,800 Lowest Low: $1,313
Analysts are forecasting that palladium prices in 2022 will average 18% lower compared to the metal’s actual average price in 2021, but 3.8% higher compared to its average price in the first half of January 2022. It is forecast to trade in a range of around $1,487, which is broadly in line with last year’s range ($1,500).
Philip Klapwijk is the most bullish about palladium, with his average forecast of $2,320 and Frank Schallenberger is the most bearish with his forecast of $1,571.