2024 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Bruce Ikemizu

Japan Bullion Market Association

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600
 

Range

$1,900 - $2,300

Average

$2,100

Lower interest rates are widely expected this year and that will prompt G7 investors, who were gold sellers in ETFs and CME in 2023 due to high interest rates, to become buyers. This will have double bullish impacts as short turns long. The central banks of non-G7 countries will still be eager buyers of gold as dedollarisation is not a one-off trend. Gold is the one asset that both emerging and developed countries can trust. I would expect lower interest rates, geopolitical tensions and dedollarisation to push the gold price still higher in 2024.

Three key drivers of the gold price: Dedollarisation (=central bank buying); FRB’s monetary policy; geopolitical tension.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34
 

Range

$20 - $32

Average

$26

Silver has a big upside potential as the gold-silver ratio remains historically high and supply shortage has continued for the last five years. However, the biggest consumer, China, had problem with its economy and silver does not have support from its central bank. Still, I would rather forecast an upside as the above-ground stock is being depleted with the strong demand from both photovoltaic and physical investment.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$850 - $1,120

Average

$1,000

Platinum had a disappointing year in 2023 and it is still confined in a very tight range of $850 to $1,100. It seems that this range will continue in 2024. Buy below $900 and sell above $1,000 strategy is still a good strategy, although I would initiate the long position first. Supply shortages and the South African mining situation may bring higher prices, while the Chinese economy is the key to global demand.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$450 $650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $1,850 $2,050
 

Range

$800 - $1,300

Average

$950

Palladium went down much further than my bearish forecast last year. It has come down to half the price from $1,800 to $950. Fundamentals are bearish still. I would expect the bottom to be around $800, because if it goes lower than this level, the producers won’t be able to continue mining palladium. The price reversal with platinum may be the point where palladium stops its downward movement.