2024 Precious Metals Forecast Survey
At a glance
Welcome to the 2024 LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey. A summary of all forecasts can be found below, and you can find more detail on each analyst's forecasts and commentary on the 'Analysts forecasts' tab above. The '2010-2024 performance' tab shows the forecasts and actual average prices year by year.
Actual Annual Prices 2010-2023 and Analysts’ 2024 Average Forecasts (US $ oz)
Analysts in this year’s survey submitted their forecasts by close of business on 11 January 2024, giving analysts the opportunity to observe eight days of trading before confirming their contributions.
Key Takeaways:
- Gold outlook: moderately bullish, all analysts see gold printing new highs.
- Silver outlook: aligned with gold's expectations, but with a forecast trading range of over double the actual range during 2023.
- Platinum outlook: modest gains forecast compared to 2023 actual prices; price volatility expected.
- Palladium outlook: bearish sentiment prevails with lower prices predicted than 2023.
As ever, analysts were also asked to identify their top three drivers for the price of gold in 2024.
The top three drivers – by quite some way – were identified as:
- US monetary policy (25%)
- Central bank activity (22%)
- Geopolitical risks (22%)
Trust in the US dollar as well as its outright strength, or otherwise, is factored into these three main drivers. Other factors cited by the analysts included, in order of frequency, global interest rate trends, investor behaviour shifts, election de-stability, recession risks, ETF net redemptions, sensitivity of physical demand, US unemployment, and risks associated with small-medium banks and industries in the US and China.
Summary of the analysts' commentary
Gold forecast
This year’s Forecast Survey reveals that sentiment for gold is moderately positive. The average 2024 forecast is $2,059 – a 6.1% increase on the average price* for 2023, a year in which gold prices reached a record high of $2,078.40 per troy ounce on December 28, 2023 (PM auction).
Comparing analysts’ forecasts against actual prices in the first 11 days of January 2024 which averaged $2,040.18, we can infer that analysts aren’t expecting runaway prices for gold this year. Yet all expect gold to print new highs – in the price ranges submitted, gold’s forecasted highs extend from $2,100-$2,405.
Gold is forecast to trade between $1,781 (the lowest low) and $2,405 (the highest high) – a range of around $624 – during 2024.
The most bullish of the bulls is Chantelle Schieven of Capitalight Research with her average forecast of $2,170, who will be pinning her hopes on a lower US dollar and continued central bank gold demand bearing out. Representing the most bearish of the analysts is James Steel of HSBC with his average forecast of $1,947, a low of $1,825 and high of $2,200.
*LBMA PM Gold Price
Silver forecast
Silver’s outlook is moderately optimistic, with an average 2024 forecast of $24.80 – 6.2% above the average price of $23.35 in 2023 and 7.1% higher than the actual average price for early January of $23.14.
The 2024 average forecast of $24.80 suggests another reserved year of silver price gains. However, within this relatively sedate forecast analysts are expecting some price volatility with their predicted trading range of $14 – between $18.00 and $32.00 – compared to the actual trading range of almost $6 last year.
Julia Du, ICBC Standard, is this year’s most bullish forecaster with her $27.00 average price forecast, while this year’s bear, Debajit Saha, Refinitiv, has a forecast of $22.50.
Platinum forecast
Platinum's price expectations are quite aligned with gold and silver’s average trajectory. Platinum is forecast to average $1,015, a definitive uptick compared to the actual average for early January of $952.88.
The 2023 average platinum price was $964.98, and analysts anticipate a 5.2% increase this year. While the price expectations are relatively modest, the spread between the lowest low and the highest high is $529, suggesting some volatility ahead.
Most optimistic about platinum’s good fortunes is James Steel, HSBC, with his forecast of $1,105, while Alexander Zumpfe’s average forecast of $950 – some $15 lower than 2023’s average price – is at the more reserved end of the scale.
Palladium forecast
The average forecast from analysts for palladium in 2024 is $1,060.10, a bearish outlook when one considers the actual average price for 2023 was $1,337.39. On the positive side, analysts are forecasting a wide spread of price activity, with the lowest low forecast of $550 and the highest high forecast to be $1,650 – a range of $1,100. So it’s anyone’s to win amidst this level of price volatility.
Analysts appear particularly negative compared to their average forecasts of $1,809.81 in 2023. Ross Norman, Metals Daily, submitted the most bearish forecast of $724.00 for palladium in 2024. Peter Fertig, QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd., sits in the most bullish position with his average price forecast of $1,250.
Top 3 drivers for the gold price in 2024
We would like to thank all contributors from across the global precious metals market for taking part in the 2024 survey, and MKS PAMP GROUP for sponsoring this year's prizes.
You can read a full PDF of all analysts' forecasts, commentaries and analysis here.
Rules of the Game
In each metal category, the analyst whose average price is closest to the actual average price in 2024 will win a 1oz gold bar.
In the event of a tie-break, where two or more analysts are equally close to the average, our winner will be the one whose high-low forecast is most closely aligned to the actual price range for 2024.
Disclaimer
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Forecast 2024 is published by LBMA. For further information please contact London Bullion Market Association, 7th Floor, 62 Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8HP Telephone: 020 7796 3067 Email: mail@lbma.org.uk www.lbma.org.uk