Christopher Louney

We think gold prices will move higher over 2024 on the back of a strong narrative, tempered by some ongoing headwinds. While on paper the eventual rate cut narrative opens up the field for gold to rally even more than we are forecasting, based on some parts of our macro analysis, we think gold is somewhat overpriced already. Additionally, investors are still sitting on the sidelines and consumption (whether consumer or investor) is set to be held back more than otherwise by already elevated gold prices, especially in non-US dollar currencies. Our forecasts assume that gold grinds higher rather than leaps higher. All eyes will likely stick to the Fed and data dependency will likely remain. At points where the rate cut narrative is questioned, we view our low scenario as the floor, and we think that our high is the ceiling unless some major unexpected catalyst materialises.

Three drivers for the gold price: Fed cutting rates; investor interest and flows; geopolitical risks.