Emmanuel Munjeri

Industrial demand for silver will likely continue to surge, with the white metal’s role in the photovoltaic sector a critical driver, helping it outpace the marginal uplift in supply over the next two years. Yet much of the near-term price movements may depend more on its precious metal status as significant above-ground stocks dampen the benefit of deficits in the market. Nonetheless, a silver rerating versus gold might still be possible – albeit at a slower pace – with China’s economic recovery providing some key support.

The platinum market shift to a decade-long deficit after 2023’s demand recovery, which has been boosted by the combination of substituting platinum for palladium and rhodium in autocatalysts, stricter emissions legislations and glass-fibre capacity in China, skews platinum price risks to the upside in 2024. Downside risks to mine supply provide further upside risk to prices, as South Africa continues to grapple with power constraints and declines in PGM basket prices pressure marginal producers. Yet years of industrial oversupply mean inventories remain elevated, which could limit sharp upswings in the price.

Palladium’s premium over platinum eroded sooner than expected, with the combination of destocking from automakers, rising battery-vehicle sales and substitution of the metal in autocatalysts accelerating a weak medium-term outlook. This could see the market most likely tilt toward surpluses in the next 18 to 24 months. Still, palladium primary supply cuts from mines operating at the margin and continued weak secondary supply could keep the market in a small deficit, offsetting declining demand and offering some downside protection for the metal through 2024.