Jacob Smith

Much like in 2023, platinum is expected to trade range-bound throughout 2024. Platinum should benefit from its third consecutive annual deficit in 2024. However, abundant above-ground stocks, waning Chinese imports at higher prices and initially a declining gold price will weigh on the metal. A lower palladium price could also undermine future autocatalyst substitution efforts.

By contrast, while Chinese imports have slowed from their near-record pace in 2021 and 2022, their purchasing as the price dips remains persistent, further reinforcing platinum’s lower bound. The PGM miners’ basket price also supports this, seeing platinum return to greater importance. At the current basket price, over half of global mine supply is potentially operating uneconomically. Any fall in the platinum price would put further pressure on primary supply, leading to more cuts as miners may place shafts on care and maintenance.

On top of this, platinum’s rangebound behaviour has become a self-fulfilling prophecy with investors, with the net managed money position frequently oscillating between long and short in line with the price. All of this brings us to forecast an annual average platinum price of $1,000 for this year, trading between $870 and $1,150, a 3% uplift on 2023’s average.