2024 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Robin Bhar

Robin Bhar Metals Consulting

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600
 

Range

$1,900 - $2,300

Average

$2,025

Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots adding to near-term inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. We hold the view that a soft landing would be engineered in the US and Europe; China’s growth would be soft; inflation risks would abate, and peak US dollar and yields have occurred. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side. Huge government deficits and huge increases in public and private debt should support the gold price.

The three most important factors that will impact on the gold price in 2024: US monetary policy; central banks; geopolitics.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34
 

Range

$18 - $27

Average

$24.30

Many of the bullish drivers for gold also apply to silver, while rebounding global growth/industrial activity is likely to boost jewellery demand and the metal has more industrial applications and is critical to green technologies (Solar PV, EVs, 5G networks, etc.). The strength of global silver industrial demand is expected to maintain the market in a deficit and draw down tight silver inventories further. Investor interest will be boosted in the face of loosening US monetary policy and silver’s important role in the energy transition.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$900 - $1,200

Average

$1,010

Despite a platinum market in deficit, the downward pressure from the weakening global economy is likely to keep the price in a similar trading range to last year. Weak demand from the jewellery industry does not promise to provide much support for the price either. However, gains from substitution from palladium will also be a supportive factor. Speculative interest is likely to be rekindled on rebounding autocatalyst demand over the course of the year, with interest switching out of the other precious metals into platinum, on perceived platinum outperformance.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Current price

$450 $650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $1,850 $2,050
 

Range

$700 - $1,600

Average

$1,200

Demand for palladium in the automotive industry – the largest customer at more than 80% – is expected to fall. Overall, supply remains in a shortfall, keeping the metal in deficit in 2024. However, the rate of substitution and continued thrifting of palladium is likely to hamper demand.