Rohit Savant

Gold prices are expected to rise over the course of 2024. Gold prices are expected to rise on a combination of healthy demand from both central banks as well as investors. Investors are expected to increase their exposure to gold this year as a hedge against increased political and economic risks. Meanwhile, central banks too are expected to be net buyers of gold during 2024. While it is possible that central bank net purchases during 2024 are somewhat lower than those seen in 2023, similar levels in net purchases as those seen 2023, during 2024, should not be ruled out as central banks continue to diversify their reserve assets.

Silver prices are forecast to rise marginally on an annual average basis during 2024. If CPM Group’s expectation for a recession in late 2024 or in 2025 materialises, it would provide the much-needed boost to silver prices. While fabrication demand is likely to struggle in a recessionary environment, investment demand typically rises sufficiently to offset any loss in fabrication demand. On the fabrication demand side too, while many of silver’s uses would suffer if a recession were to arrive, silver’s demand from the solar panel industry is expected to continue rising.

While some aspects of platinum fabrication demand will remain supportive of platinum prices, much of the support for platinum this year is likely to come from the supply side. The use of platinum in place of palladium in gasoline autocatalysts is expected to remain the main supportive factor for palatinum fabrication demand this year. Commercial vehicle demand is likely to face headwinds if projections for weaker global economic growth during 2024 materialise, however, offsetting any positive demand effect for platinum. On the supply side, most South African mines are presently financially underwater due to the weakness in the platinum group metal (PGM) basket price over the past year. This is expected to, at least initially, result in some of the higher cost production going offline.

After falling sharply during 2023, palladium prices are expected to remain under pressure during 2024. Various challenges that the market faced in 2023 remain in place. The substitution of palladium with platinum in autocatalysts and the ongoing increase in electric vehicle market share are expected to continue in 2024, weighing on palladium fabrication demand. If economic growth slows, as the year progresses, passenger vehicle demand could slow even further, weighing on palladium fabrication demand and prices. The supply side of the market is likely to help provide some support to palladium prices. There are concerns regarding a decline in mine supply, especially out of South Africa.